IDEAS

Idea 6: Scenario Analysis

“Action may be the point of critical thinking, but it will only be informed if it springs from a good understanding of a situation.”¹

Learning Intention

At the heart of inquiry is the ability to identify and challenge underlying assumptions on which ideas are based. Designed to help students focus less on providing solutions and more on analyzing assumptions that underlie decision making, this instructional tool puts students in the role of detective, uncovering hidden ideas and seeking alternative explanations.

Overview

Presented with a bite-sized case study of a fictional character making a choice or judgment about the material being taught, students inquire about the thought process behind the character’s decision-making by identifying the assumptions the character is relying upon, then consider ways the character could check their assumptions and offer alternative perspectives the character might have overlooked or challenged.

Instructions

1. Prepare a scenario for students to analyze. Write or acquire a brief description of a fictional character making a decision, arguing for a particular idea, planning a course of action, or judging the validity of a conclusion. For example, describe a fictional psychologist studying a child with learning difficulties who concludes the child is autistic based on a particular set of observations or a fictional triage nurse in an understaffed emergency room making a decision about the relative seriousness of a patient’s condition based on information he gathers from the patient.
2. Divide students into small groups and distribute the scenarios. You might have all groups working on the same scenario or give each group a different scenario to investigate.
3. Pose the following questions to students:
   • What assumptions, explicit and implicit, do you think the character is operating under in this situation? List as many as you can.
   • Of the assumptions you’ve listed, which ones could the character check by simple research and inquiry. How could s/he do this?
   • Give an alternate interpretation of this scenario: a version of what’s happening that is consistent with the events described but that you think the character would challenge or has not noticed.¹
4. Ask students to discuss their ideas and/or present their ideas to the class. If students are working on the same scenarios, highlight any similarities or differences between students/groups analyses of the situation.

Considerations

• Restrict students from offering advice or proposing solutions; instead, keep them focused on uncovering assumptions and proposing alternative perspectives. “The intent of Scenario Analysis is to show students that the quality of any advice offered is correlated with how well people are able to identify the assumptions they bring to their understanding of a problem.”¹
• Look for or develop scenarios that are realistic, relevant, risk-inclusive, and open-ended.³

References

1. Brookfield, S. D. (2012). Teaching for Critical Thinking: Tools and Techniques to Help
   Students Question Their Assumptions. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass
2. Brookfield, S. D. (2015). The Skillful Teacher: On Technique, Trust, and
   Responsiveness in the Classroom. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.
3. Nilson, L. B. (2010). Teaching at its best: A research-based resource for college
   instructors. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.